People have been researching this line for years and there must several hundred trees or pieces thereof in the public domain. Documentation in the first two or three generations is a bit circumstantial and as a result different interpretations exist. The tree used here could rightly be called a "consensus tree" drawn from those sources. It connects three families in the context of pedigrees as submitted to the project:
  1. Robert FERGUSON and Martha BAUGH
  2. John FERGUSON and Mary GILL
  3. Moses FERGUSON and. Elizabeth LIVELY
The genealogical relationships depicted in the consensus tree and the associated DNA results are consistent with one another. That is not to say the genealogy has been proved beyond reasonable doubt but rather it has been put to a test and passed.

Descendant Lines In Project

Tree

Haplotypes

These Ferguson fall within Branch II of R1b > L21 > DF21 > S7858 Scotland to Virginia. Descendants of John Ferguson and Mary Rudd have DYS448=19 and DYS385b=11 except descendants of their son John Ferguson and Mary Gill have DYS448=19 and DYS385b=12
FTDNA Configuration - DNA Results Comparison
ID D
Y
S
3
9
3
D
Y
S
3
9
0
D
Y
S
1
9
D
Y
S
3
9
1
D
Y
S
3
8
5
D
Y
S
4
2
6
D
Y
S
3
8
8
D
Y
S
4
3
9
D
Y
S
3
8
9
-
1
D
Y
S
3
9
2
D
Y
S
3
8
9
-
2
D
Y
S
4
5
8
D
Y
S
4
5
9
D
Y
S
4
5
5
D
Y
S
4
5
4
D
Y
S
4
4
7
D
Y
S
4
3
7
D
Y
S
4
4
8
D
Y
S
4
4
9
D
Y
S
4
6
4
D
Y
S
4
6
0
Y
-
G
A
T
A
-
H
4
Y
C
A
I
I
D
Y
S
4
5
6
D
Y
S
6
0
7
D
Y
S
5
7
6
D
Y
S
5
7
0
C
D
Y
D
Y
S
4
4
2
D
Y
S
4
3
8
D
Y
S
5
3
1
D
Y
S
5
7
8
D
Y
F
3
9
5
S
1
D
Y
S
5
9
0
D
Y
S
5
3
7
D
Y
S
6
4
1
D
Y
S
4
7
2
D
Y
F
4
0
6
S
1
D
Y
S
5
1
1
D
Y
S
4
2
5
D
Y
S
4
1
3
D
Y
S
5
5
7
D
Y
S
5
9
4
D
Y
S
4
3
6
D
Y
S
4
9
0
D
Y
S
5
3
4
D
Y
S
4
5
0
D
Y
S
4
4
4
D
Y
S
4
8
1
D
Y
S
5
2
0
D
Y
S
4
4
6
D
Y
S
6
1
7
D
Y
S
5
6
8
D
Y
S
4
8
7
D
Y
S
5
7
2
D
Y
S
6
4
0
D
Y
S
4
9
2
D
Y
S
5
6
5
D
Y
S
7
1
0
D
Y
S
4
8
5
D
Y
S
6
3
2
D
Y
S
4
9
5
D
Y
S
5
4
0
D
Y
S
7
1
4
D
Y
S
7
1
6
D
Y
S
7
1
7
D
Y
S
5
0
5
D
Y
S
5
5
6
D
Y
S
5
4
9
D
Y
S
5
8
9
D
Y
S
5
2
2
D
Y
S
4
9
4
D
Y
S
5
3
3
D
Y
S
6
3
6
D
Y
S
5
7
5
D
Y
S
6
3
8
D
Y
S
4
6
2
D
Y
S
4
5
2
D
Y
S
4
4
5
Y
-
G
A
T
A
-
A
1
0
D
Y
S
4
6
3
D
Y
S
4
4
1
Y
-
G
G
A
A
T
-
1
B
0
7
D
Y
S
5
2
5
D
Y
S
7
1
2
D
Y
S
5
9
3
D
Y
S
6
5
0
D
Y
S
5
3
2
D
Y
S
7
1
5
D
Y
S
5
0
4
D
Y
S
5
1
3
D
Y
S
5
6
1
D
Y
S
5
5
2
D
Y
S
7
2
6
D
Y
S
6
3
5
D
Y
S
5
8
7
D
Y
S
6
4
3
D
Y
S
4
9
7
D
Y
S
5
1
0
D
Y
S
4
3
4
D
Y
S
4
6
1
D
Y
S
4
3
5
modal 13 23 14 11 11-14 12 12 11 13 13 30 16 9-10 11 11 25 16 19 29 15-15-17-18 11 11 19-23 16 15 19 16 37-37 13 13 11 9 15-16 8 10 10 8 10 10 12 23-23 16 10 12 12 13 8 12 21 21 13 12 11 14 10 11 12 12 34 15 9 16 13 25 26 19 12 11 13 12 12 9 11 12 10 11 11 30 12 13 24 13 9 10 21 15 18 14 24 17 13 15 25 12 23 18 11 14 17 9 14 12
42807_Ferguson 13 23 14 11 12-14 12 12 11 13 13 30 16 9-10 11 11 25 16 19 29 15-15-17-18 11 11 19-23 16 15 19 16 36-37 13 13 11 9 15-16 8 10 10 8 10 10 12 23-23 16 10 12 12 13 8 12 21 21 13 12 11 14 10 11 12 12 34 15 9 16 13 25 26 19 12 11 13 12 12 9 11 12 10 11 11 30 12 13 24 13 9 10 21 15 18 14 24 16 12 15 25 12 23 18 11 14 17 9 14 12
118466_Ferguson 13 23 14 11 12-14 12 12 11 13 13 30 16 9-10 11 11 25 16 19 29 15-15-17-18 11 11 19-23 16 15 19 16 36-37 13 13 11 9 15-16 8 10 10 8 10 10 12 23-23 16 10 12 12 13 8 12 21 20 13 12 11 14 10 11 12 12
113169_Ferguson 13 23 14 11 12-14 12 12 11 13 13 30 16 9-10 11 11 25 16 19 29 15-15-17-18 11 11 19-23 16 15 19 16 36-37 13 13 11 9 15-16 8 10 10 8 10 10 12 23-23 16 10 12 12 13 8 12 21 21 13 12 11 14 10 11 12 12
106299_Fergusson 13 23 14 11 11-14 12 12 11 13 13 30 16 9-10 11 11 25 16 19 29 15-15-17-18 11 11 19-23 16 15 19 16 37-37 14 13 11 9 15-16 8 10 10 8 10 10 12 23-23 16 10 12 12 13 8 12 21 21 13 12 11 14 10 11 12 12
161159_Ferguson 13 23 14 11 11-14 12 12 11 13 13 30 16 9-10 11 11 25 16 19 29 15-15-17-18 11 11 19-23 16 15 19 16 37-37 13 13 11 9 15-16 8 10 10 8 10 10 12 23-23 16 10 12 12 13 8 12 21 21 13 12 11 14 10 11 12 12 34 15 9 16 13 25 26 19 12 11 13 12 12 9 11 12 10 11 11 30 12 13 24 13 9 10 21 15 18 14 25 17 13 15 25 12 23 18 11 14 17 9 14 12
132821_Ferguson 13 23 14 11 11-14 12 12 11 13 13 30 16 9-10 11 11 25 16 19 29 15-15-17-18 11 11 19-23 16 15 19 16 37-37 13 13 11 9 15-16 8 10 10 8 10 10 12 23-23 16 10 12 12 13 8 12 21 21 13 12 11 14 10 11 12 12 34 15 9 16 13 25 26 19 12 11 13 12 12 9 11 12 10 11 11 30 12 13 24 13 9 10 21 15 18 14 24 17 13 15 25 12 23 18 11 14 17 9 13 12
662471_Ferguson 13 23 14 11 11-14 12 12 11 13 13 30 16 9-10 11 11 25 16 19 29 15-15-17-18 11 11 19-23 16 15 19 16 37-37 13 13
Distance from reference: Zero One Two Three+

The diagram above illustrates a process known as triangulation. Since it is known that 42807, 118466 and 11369 both have DYS385b=12 and CDYb=37 so too must their most recent common ancestor John Ferguson b.~1726, green boxes path. Everyone else in the diagram has DYS385a=12 has CDYb=36 from which it can be concluded that the mutations occured in the birth of said John Ferguson.

The probability of two single step mutations occuring in a father-son event is low but it happens. In a study by Decker et al, they were able to observe twenty four differences between father and son and in that set the were two instances of two single step mutations. That gives a ball park figure of 8% strated as: when a father son difference exists, 8% of the time in involves two single step mutations. That ball park estimate will likely be higher in cases involving CDY since it mutates about ten times faster than any of the 17 markers used in that study. The bottom line is that in the present example the observed DNA results and genealogical relationships are consistent with one another. If a more severe test is required then all involved should upgrade to 111 markers. We have the expectation that inferred father son difference involving DYS385 and CDY would not differ on any of the additional markers, if that in fact is true then confidence in the genealogy would be very high.
Decker et al, Analysis of mutations in father-son pairs with 17 Y-STR loci, Forensic Science International: Genetics 2 (2008) e31-e35

TMRCA

The table below compares the actual pairwise TMRCA as deduced from the above diagram, above the diagnol, with theoretical computations. The numbers reported in the table below are such that the TMRCA are expected to fall within the range shown with 90% of the time. In this example they are all within range except the one highlighted in red; if the computation is repeated for the 1% to 99% TMRCA the result is 1-13 generations and consistent with the 10 generations indicated by the pedigrees.
Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (Generations)
ID 4
2
8
0
7
1
1
8
4
6
6
1
1
3
1
6
9
1
0
6
2
9
9
1
6
1
1
5
9
1
3
2
8
2
1
6
6
2
4
7
1
42807 111 10 10 10.5 10.5 10 10.5
118466 1-15 67 10 10.5 10.5 10 10.5
113169 0-9 1-15 67 10.5 10.5 10 10.5
106299 4-23 6-27 4-23 67 11 10.5 11
161159 4-19 4-23 2-19 1-15 111 10.5 11
132821 4-19 4-23 2-19 1-15 1-11 111 11
662471 3-24 3-24 3-24 1-19 0-11 0-11 37
Related Probably Related Possibly Related Not Enough Data
- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Average mutation rate varies: 0.0026 to 0.0036
- Mutation rates from Heinilia, 2012
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested
- The TMRCA is expected to be in the range shown (5% to 95%)
- Related means in a genealogical time frame as defined by ISOGG

Vital Records

Robert Ferguson and Martha Baugh

Most public trees say Robert II son of Robert I was baptized Jan 29 1661 in Yester, East Lothian, Scotland. That maybe so but it is speculation because none of the documents concerning Robert II Ferguson of Henrico, VA mention a place of birth.

Moses Ferguson and Martha Womack

John Ferguson and Mary Gill

Daniel Ferguson and Sarah Graves

Baugh Genealogy


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