People have been researching this line for years and there must several hundred trees or pieces thereof in the public domain. Documentation in the first two or three generations is a bit circumstantial and as a result different interpretations exist. The tree used here connects three families in the context of pedigrees as submitted to the project:
The genealogical relationships depicted in the tree and the associated DNA results are consistent with one another. That is not to say the genealogy has been proved beyond reasonable doubt but rather it has been put to a test and passed.
These Ferguson fall within Branch II of R-DF21 >> S7858 Sct2VA. Descendants of John Ferguson and Mary Rudd have DYS448=19 and DYS385b=11 except descendants of their son John Ferguson and Mary Gill have DYS448=19 and DYS385b=12
FTDNA Configuration - DNA Results Comparison | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ID | D Y S 3 9 3 |
D Y S 3 9 0 |
D Y S 1 9 |
D Y S 3 9 1 |
D Y S 3 8 5 |
D Y S 4 2 6 |
D Y S 3 8 8 |
D Y S 4 3 9 |
D Y S 3 8 9 - 1 |
D Y S 3 9 2 |
D Y S 3 8 9 - 2 |
D Y S 4 5 8 |
D Y S 4 5 9 |
D Y S 4 5 5 |
D Y S 4 5 4 |
D Y S 4 4 7 |
D Y S 4 3 7 |
D Y S 4 4 8 |
D Y S 4 4 9 |
D Y S 4 6 4 |
D Y S 4 6 0 |
Y - G A T A - H 4 |
Y C A I I |
D Y S 4 5 6 |
D Y S 6 0 7 |
D Y S 5 7 6 |
D Y S 5 7 0 |
C D Y |
D Y S 4 4 2 |
D Y S 4 3 8 |
D Y S 5 3 1 |
D Y S 5 7 8 |
D Y F 3 9 5 S 1 |
D Y S 5 9 0 |
D Y S 5 3 7 |
D Y S 6 4 1 |
D Y S 4 7 2 |
D Y F 4 0 6 S 1 |
D Y S 5 1 1 |
D Y S 4 2 5 |
D Y S 4 1 3 |
D Y S 5 5 7 |
D Y S 5 9 4 |
D Y S 4 3 6 |
D Y S 4 9 0 |
D Y S 5 3 4 |
D Y S 4 5 0 |
D Y S 4 4 4 |
D Y S 4 8 1 |
D Y S 5 2 0 |
D Y S 4 4 6 |
D Y S 6 1 7 |
D Y S 5 6 8 |
D Y S 4 8 7 |
D Y S 5 7 2 |
D Y S 6 4 0 |
D Y S 4 9 2 |
D Y S 5 6 5 |
D Y S 7 1 0 |
D Y S 4 8 5 |
D Y S 6 3 2 |
D Y S 4 9 5 |
D Y S 5 4 0 |
D Y S 7 1 4 |
D Y S 7 1 6 |
D Y S 7 1 7 |
D Y S 5 0 5 |
D Y S 5 5 6 |
D Y S 5 4 9 |
D Y S 5 8 9 |
D Y S 5 2 2 |
D Y S 4 9 4 |
D Y S 5 3 3 |
D Y S 6 3 6 |
D Y S 5 7 5 |
D Y S 6 3 8 |
D Y S 4 6 2 |
D Y S 4 5 2 |
D Y S 4 4 5 |
Y - G A T A - A 1 0 |
D Y S 4 6 3 |
D Y S 4 4 1 |
Y - G G A A T - 1 B 0 7 |
D Y S 5 2 5 |
D Y S 7 1 2 |
D Y S 5 9 3 |
D Y S 6 5 0 |
D Y S 5 3 2 |
D Y S 7 1 5 |
D Y S 5 0 4 |
D Y S 5 1 3 |
D Y S 5 6 1 |
D Y S 5 5 2 |
D Y S 7 2 6 |
D Y S 6 3 5 |
D Y S 5 8 7 |
D Y S 6 4 3 |
D Y S 4 9 7 |
D Y S 5 1 0 |
D Y S 4 3 4 |
D Y S 4 6 1 |
D Y S 4 3 5 |
|||||
modal | 13 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 11-14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 30 | 16 | 9-10 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 16 | 19 | 29 | 15-15-17-18 | 11 | 11 | 19-23 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 37-37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 15-16 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 23-23 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 34 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 30 | 12 | 13 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 24 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 25 | 12 | 23 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 9 | 14 | 12 | |||||
13 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 12-14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 30 | 16 | 9-10 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 16 | 19 | 29 | 15-15-17-18 | 11 | 11 | 19-23 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 36-37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 15-16 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 23-23 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 34 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 30 | 12 | 13 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 25 | 12 | 23 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 9 | 14 | 12 | ||||||
13 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 12-14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 30 | 16 | 9-10 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 16 | 19 | 29 | 15-15-17-18 | 11 | 11 | 19-23 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 36-37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 15-16 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 23-23 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 12-14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 30 | 16 | 9-10 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 16 | 19 | 29 | 15-15-17-18 | 11 | 11 | 19-23 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 36-37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 15-16 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 23-23 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 11-14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 30 | 16 | 9-10 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 16 | 19 | 29 | 15-15-17-18 | 11 | 11 | 19-23 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 37-37 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 15-16 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 23-23 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 11-14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 30 | 16 | 9-10 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 16 | 19 | 29 | 15-15-17-18 | 11 | 11 | 19-23 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 37-37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 15-16 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 23-23 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 34 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 30 | 12 | 13 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 25 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 25 | 12 | 23 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 9 | 14 | 12 | ||||||
13 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 11-14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 30 | 16 | 9-10 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 16 | 19 | 29 | 15-15-17-18 | 11 | 11 | 19-23 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 37-37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 15-16 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 23-23 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 34 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 30 | 12 | 13 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 24 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 25 | 12 | 23 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 12 | ||||||
13 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 11-14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 30 | 16 | 9-10 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 16 | 19 | 29 | 15-15-17-18 | 11 | 11 | 19-23 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 37-37 | 13 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The diagram above illustrates a process known as triangulation. Since it is known that 42807, 118466 and 11369 both have DYS385b=12 and CDYb=37 so too must their most recent common ancestor John Ferguson b.~1726, green boxes path. Everyone else in the diagram has DYS385a=12 has CDYb=36 from which it can be concluded that the mutations occurred in the birth of said John Ferguson.
The probability of two single step mutations occurring in a
father-son event is low but it happens. In a study by Decker et al, they were
able to observe twenty four differences between father and son and in that set
the were two instances of two single step mutations. That gives a ball park
figure of 8% stated as: when a father son difference exists, 8% of the time in
involves two single step mutations. That ball park estimate will likely be
higher in cases involving CDY since it mutates about ten times faster than any
of the 17 markers used in that study. The bottom line is that in the present
example the observed DNA results and genealogical relationships are consistent
with one another. If a more severe test is required then all involved should
upgrade to 111 markers. We have the expectation that inferred father son
difference involving DYS385 and CDY would not differ on any of the additional
markers, if that in fact is true then confidence in the genealogy would be very
high.
[ Analysis of mutations in father-son pairs with 17 Y-STR loci,
Forensic Science International: Genetics 2 (2008) e31-e35 ]
Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (Generations) | |||||||||||
ID | |||||||||||
111 | 10 | 10 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10 | 10.5 | |||||
1-15 | 67 | 10 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10 | 10.5 | |||||
0-9 | 1-15 | 67 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10 | 10.5 | |||||
4-23 | 6-27 | 4-23 | 67 | 11 | 10.5 | 11 | |||||
4-19 | 4-23 | 2-19 | 1-15 | 111 | 10.5 | 11 | |||||
4-19 | 4-23 | 2-19 | 1-15 | 1-11 | 111 | 11 | |||||
3-24 | 3-24 | 3-24 | 1-19 | 0-11 | 0-11 | 37 | |||||
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- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Average mutation rate varies: 0.0026 to 0.0036 - Mutation rates from Heinilia, 2012 - Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested - The TMRCA is expected to be in the range shown (5% to 95%) - Related means in a genealogical time frame as defined by ISOGG |
Most public trees say Robert II son of Robert I was baptized Jan 29 1661 in Yester, East Lothian, Scotland. That maybe so but it is speculation because none of the documents concerning Robert II Ferguson of Henrico, VA mention a place of birth.
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